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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."